Saturday, April 13, 2013

AFL Preview Round 3

 
 
Last week 6 from 9 for a total of 9 from 18. We’re tipping at 50%! Some teams are showing unusually good form while others seem to be finding their feet. More scandals at Essendon, resignations at Melbourne, returns from injury and players out with injury. Frustrating business tipping. Good luck! And yes this is the 2013 season not the 2012 season the heading showed last week.

Fremantle v Essendon at Patersons Stadium Friday night

Both teams go into this match undefeated after the first 2 rounds. It will be interesting to see where Essendon really is compared to last year as they take on a very good Fremantle side, the tip made a little harder with the game in Perth. The Dockers have been able to account for the Bombers in previous matches here so they have every chance for a 3 zip start to the season. Then again Essendon did win in Perth the last time they met. That pre-season drug controversy has raised its ugly head at Essendon again with accusations that Hird took a banned substance. He doesn’t play any more so is that a problem although I doubt James would even consider something like that. Let’s stick to footy.

Fremantle by 22

 

North Melbourne V Sydney At Blundstone Arena Tasmania Saturday

The Kangaroos were so unlucky last week to lose a game based on an umpiring decision but they also threw away a 6 goal lead they had at half time so really the game should not have come down to the last kick. If they play the same against the Swans the result will also be the same – another loss. Some aspects of their game in the 2nd half left a lot to be desired and Sydney knows how to maintain pressure.

The Swans have never played at this ground before and I wonder whether that makes a difference. North must somehow manufacture a win after 2 close losses but I can’t see that happening in this game.

Sydney by 16

 

Melbourne V West Coast Eagles at the MCG Saturday

No tipster in his or her right mind can tip Melbourne for a game until they see some sort of improvement. While West Coast seems to have their own problems, lack of effort isn’t one of them. With 2 losses from 2 games and high hopes of playing in a Grand Final this year the Eagles need to start here. During the week the Melbourne president Cameron Schwab fell on his sword but he would be the last in line one could blame. Perhaps he had a better offer to go somewhere else or like the rest of us, cannot see the Demons recovering to be any sort of a football team until the 2020’s. Can anyone remember when 15th played 18th and the odds against one of the teams was $11 for a win?

West Coast by 33

 

GWS Giants V St Kilda at Manuka Canberra Saturday

Unlike the Demons the Giants look like they are trying, they simply don’t have the experience of games in the playing group. St Kilda has lost 2 games, neither by a lot, and they should be good enough to account for GWS in this game. Remember they beat the Giants by 128 points last time they met and there hasn’t been that much changed in either team. St Kilda didn’t look all that bad against Richmond last week so they should open their account with a win in this match.

St Kilda by 69

 

Geelong V Carlton at Etihad Saturday night

Even though Geelong has won their first 2 games and Carlton has lost both theirs the two teams are playing well and the Blues are not so far from a win. Unfortunately for them the Cats look a little better across the ground and can match Carlton for pace. Mick says he isn’t panicking yet but 3 losses in a row might have him chewing a fingernail or two. The Cats have been able to come back from 6 goal deficits two games in a row so even a fast start by the Blues won’t mean ‘put down your glasses’ if they are 6 goals up at half time. I’m not sure they are playing a different game plan but one must assume that they are because the old one, under Ratten, yielded little in the way of success.

Geelong by 13

 

Gold Coast Suns V Brisbane Lions at Metricon Saturday night

Can the Suns pull off another win against the Lions who have not opened their account yet? Brisbane is not playing well and while their first loss was a surprisingly big margin they were expected to do a lot better against the Crows at home. I’ve tipped them twice already for two losses and I am heading for the 3 strikes rule in this game. The Suns have done pretty well in 2 rounds so far this season with a win and a reasonable effort against Sydney. Tipsters are all waiting for Brisbane to show us something, like a win, so the tip goes to the Lions.

Brisbane by 7

 

Richmond V Western Bulldogs at Etihad Sunday

I see these sides as pretty even with the Tigers just a whisker ahead due to a more structured forward line. While I am inclined to tip Richmond to continue their welcome winning form I would not be surprised to see a Bulldog victory. I saw a lot of errors by the Tigers in that game against St Kilda last week. The team with the least errors in this match will emerge victorious. The odds quoted for the Bulldogs is $4.20! That’s a bit generous and probably worth a lazy $10 as a speculative. But, the Tigers thrashed the Doggies last time they met so maybe they have their measure. It would be nice to see the roof on if there is a wet weather forecast.

Richmond by 17

 

Collingwood V Hawthorn at the MCG Sunday

We can expect another big crowd at the MCG to see these two teams play again. They always provide great football and great entertainment. Collingwood has the opportunity to notch 3 wins from 3 games but in the past the Hawks have nailed them in the last quarter. The Pies dislodged the Carlton monkey from their back last week can they do the same in this match against Hawthorn? If Collingwood wants to make a statement this year then this win is pretty important. The Magpies have beaten 2 of the 3 teams they couldn’t beat last year and Hawthorn is the 3rd. Not a lot wrong with the Hawthorn game plan either and the inclusion of Hodge last week against West Coast makes them look even better.

Collingwood by 7

 

Port Adelaide V Adelaide at AAMI Sunday

Last season you would not have given the Power a sniff of a chance in this match up with big brother in the SA Derby but somehow the team has been turned around and is performing well, probably better than the Crows at the moment. Unfortunately the act of tipping them to win is haunted by ghosts of the past in the form of some big losses. I don’t foresee a regression but I still think Adelaide will win. Port has beaten GWS and Melbourne but most AFL teams will be able to add that stat to their win / loss record this year.

Adelaide by 25

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