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Friday, September 2, 2011

AFL Preview Round 24


Last week 5/8 = 133/179 (74.4%)
The real surprise last week was the win by Sydney and the resultant breaking of the greatest home ground winning streak of Geelong’s. It would have been nice to have bet the house on the Swans to win that one. Richmond’s win was a little surprising as well even though they had the form on the board because the Crows had also been playing okay and the game was at home for them. More kudos can be paid to the Tigers for that one. I expected the St Kilda versus North Melbourne game to be much closer and the result to go either way and certainly didn’t expect such a blow out in the margin. So the last couple of rounds have been rather ordinary with regard to the previews if tipsters have been following the mail.

This week is the last round of the home and away for the season and because the top 8 teams are finalised regardless of results in their match tipsters have to be wary about how those teams will approach these games. Win at all costs, rest key players, do enough to win or just turn up for the game to eat the oranges at 3 quarter time? It all makes for some extra things to think about when submitting your tips.
Thanks to all the readers who have enjoyed the previews and those that have provided their feedback. I also hope you enjoyed some tales about China and its people and customs.
Good luck with the tipping.
Collingwood V Geelong at the MCG Friday night
It’s possible that this game will be replayed as the Grand Final but it will be more interesting to see how the two teams approach the game. Win and adopt a superior attitude or lose and be called the ‘underdog’? Coaching and psychological tactics will be applied to make this more than a game of footy. Retirements are occurring in both sides with Cam Mooney for the Cats and Leigh Brown for the Pies so we can expect heroic efforts although both teams will play prominent roles through the finals. Obviously the two teams are closely matched in performance this year and the first game they played resulted in a lucky win for Geelong. I am not so sure the Cats are up for a tough game at this end of the season and I expect Collingwood to turn the earlier result around but I don’t think the margin will be great.
Collingwood by 22
Gold Coast V Hawthorn at Metricon Saturday
The Hawks could be in for a massive win, hope for a Geelong loss and steal 2nd position on the ladder. Or, play the game, rest players and not worry too much about the result. Well, not the result, we know that….I mean the margin. One player Hawthorn wouldn’t rest is Franklin as he leads the goal kicking and will have the opportunity to kick a few more in this match.
Hawthorn by 52
Western Bulldogs V Fremantle at Etihad Saturday
It’s now history that the Dockers have so many injuries that Harvs himself will pull on the boots and play at centre half back. Either way, Barry Hall will finish his career with at least 5 goals and the Bulldogs will win another game. Schammer is retiring for Freo and at such a young age of 26. The poor season for Fremantle will continue in this game and hopefully next year they can keep players off the injury list and do much better. Maybe the Bulldogs need new blood in the coaching position to get them back to playing finals.
Western Bulldogs by 44
Sydney V Brisbane Lions at the SCG Saturday
After playing well above themselves last week fed on some high emotion and beating the Cats the danger for Sydney is the let down this week and allowing the Lions to sneak in under their guard. Then again, does the result matter? This will be close because Brisbane will want to send Luke Power off with a win. Then again Tadgh is retiring at Sydney too although the Swans have a finals campaign to play.
Brisbane by 2
Carlton V St Kilda at the MCG Saturday
The Saints really played well last week against North and secured their finals ticket. They meet Carlton coming off a bye and again, the result of the game means diddly squat to either team who will be saving themselves for the following elimination final. If the Saints forward line fires they win and last week Reiwoldt, Koschitzke and Milne kicked a serious score. The Blues backline is not the strongest combination but if they can hold these 3 players the game is theirs. I’m tipping the Saints because they need to maintain their momentum after a horror start. Carlton might be a bit off the pace because of the bye and really will want to be at their peak the next week when they play Essendon in an Elimination final.
St Kilda by 12
West Coast V Adelaide at Paterson Saturday
Last week it was capitulation by the Crows against Richmond and conversely it was a real good win from behind for the Eagles against Brisbane. This is another game in which there is not a lot to play for by either team. Home team, home crowd, should be enough to get West Coast over the line and complete what can only be considered as an amazing season by them.
West Coast Eagles by 29
Port Adelaide V Melbourne at Adelaide Oval Sunday
The Power switched back on last week and almost beat Essendon but they eventually snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and lost by a few points. Melbourne struggled against the Suns as well. It’s just possible that the Demons could get rolled in this game and add to the ignominy of their season. Port needs to win to avoid the Wooden Spoon. The game is being played at Adelaide Oval but I don’t know the reason for that. Maybe that will work in Melbourne’s favour seeing they find it difficult to win at AAMI.
Melbourne by 12
Richmond V North Melbourne at the Etihad Sunday
While the game really doesn’t mean much it does in fact decide which team will finish 9th, just outside the 8, so there is a smidgeon of pride in the contest. The Tigers are going great with 3 wins in a row and North has faltered with 1 win from its last 4 games. Expect North to be pretty ferocious at the contests after an insipid performance last week cost the team any hope of making the finals.
Richmond by 18

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