Friday, August 20, 2010

AFL Preview Round 21

AFL Preview Round 21
Here we are tipsters, the second last round of the AFL season. The top 4 are pretty well set assuming there is a Bulldogs win this weekend. It’s a bit late I know but the preview gave you 8 winners last week and even the margins were in the ball park! Marvellous effort. While I was on teh train on teh way to the MCG last Friday night I suddenly realised that I had not put my tips in for the weekend with the 3 comps I am in. I also used to occasionally put $10 on my card selections with Sportsbet but didn’t do that either.
Typifies the season. However I won the jackpot in the Hoo Memorial but had to share the $78 with 3 others. I invested the money immediately, not in stocks and bonds but by putting it towards next year’s tipping entry fees.
The Ben Cousins saga is drawing to a close so it will be interesting to see what the journos can find to fill that gap over the next 12 months. Of more interest is what will Cuz find to fill the gap?
The Brownlow medal is being handed to Dane Swan by most media experts based on data. He’s such a quiet, unassuming guy that maybe the umpires don’t notice him as much as Ablett or Judd. He certainly has the stats to take out the medal but last year he polled only 12 votes. One prediction is for sure at this year’s Brownlow – Fev won’t be invited!

Geelong V Carlton at Etihad Friday night
Last week the Cats won by 101 and Carlton won by 89. The difference in winning margins is 12 points and with the Bulldogs kennel cough now passed on to Geelong there might be the distinct possibility that the Blues will get that close. Maybe. Carlton have been boasting how they have beaten Geelong and St Kilda this year but it was all downhill after that. However, a return to form playing Richmond and Essendon will fill then with confidence and they will need it to take on the Cats who won by a landslide last week against The Bulldogs. Geelong seems to be building for the finals so it’s doubtful that the Blues will find them on an off day twice in a season.

Geelong by 12

St Kilda V Richmond at Etihad Saturday
The Saints are on the rampage and a young Tigers team will be run over, chewed up and spat out as the Saints go on to win this by a healthy margin. Bye Ben. Nick has really hit his straps over the past couple of weeks and was BOG for the Saints last week against North. It’s hard to see who in the backline for the Tigers can hold Riewoldt this week as well. He could kick 10 just like his cousin did a few weeks back against the Eagles. One of the Reiwoldts will star. Guess which one?
St Kilda by 88

Hawthorn V Fremantle at Aurora Tassie Saturday
The furtherest point from Fremantle in WA is the Aurora stadium in Tasmania. Lately the Dockers have not been travelling well. Lately the Dockers have not been playing well. This is a tough ask and maybe Freo is banking on beating Carlton next week because resting Pav and the fact that they might not have Sandilands back with his injured foot does not help. Rumour has it that the Dockers will leave even Pavlich out! It’s hard to make a positive case for Fremantle so I won’t bother.
Hawthorn by 21

Collingwood V Adelaide at MCG Saturday
If you wanted to disrupt a team at any time during a season ban one of your best players for the remaining two games because he wants to play elsewhere. Soooo professional. They will, not as a result of that action, but because they are an inferior team, looooose!!  The Pies are not resting players as they approach the finals so the interest remains whether Josh Fraser will get to play his 200th. Will Mick persist with playing Medhurst to help get him used to the AFL pace or will Davis return? The Crows have given up on this season so they might blood some more youngsters. The Birdman Burton is no longer flying for them either. Adelaide will need towork hard to keep this from being a complete walkover.
Collingwood by 45

Sydney V Western Bulldogs at the SCG Saturday
The Swans are on a bit of a roll lately and there’s nothing to say that they can’t win this game. However, if it was the virus last week that caused the huge Bulldog loss, and, assuming they are all okay this week, they should win! Brad Johnson has been under scrutiny this week mainly due to Akermanis and his negative comments. I wish the guy would shut up really because his attacks on the Bullies reall smack of being a bad sport. This will be a close game based on form because one team needs a form reversal to overcome the form of the other team. And you all know how well we have tipped based on form this season?
Western Bulldogs by 29

Port Adelaide V Melbourne at AAMI Sunday
It’s a shame the Demons lost last week because they would have a greater incentive to win knowing they could play in a final. But they still should be good enough to beat Port who really fell over the line last week against the Eagles. The stats for the Dees winning at this ground and against this team are woeful. 10 years! Based on that history there is a good case for tipsters to lean towards the Power but honestly, did you see them play last week? Maybe the Eagles brought them down a bit in standard but there would have to be a significant improvement on that effort to be considered a chance against Melbourne. The Demons have reached new heights this season so maybe a win at AAMI against Port is another step up.
Melbourne by 30

Essendon V Brisbane Lions at Etihad Sunday
Both teams playing badly. Both coaches under siege. Neither team is going to make the finals. The game won’t even fill Etihad. Should be a draw but maybe the Bombers can put another 4 premiership points into the bag. They would have to play a lot better than they did last week against the Pies, a game in which they were woeful. Brown was injured last week so did not play his 200th in front of a home crowd. Maybe they will hold him off until the last game of the year played at home to celebrate the occasion. Essendon beat the Saints during the year and Brisbane beat Collingwood. I’m going for the Bombers simply because it’s a home game for them but the result could go any way.
Essendon by 12

West Coast V North Melbourne at Subiaco Sunday
Well, with the wooden spoon dangling from the ceiling in the West Coast dressing room, the team cannot do any worse. North want to show that they were the true 9th team so a loss would not help their pride. It’s a possibility that they will win this in a canter. For their captain Harvey, playing his 300th, it would be a fitting tribute. I reckon the Eagles will give it a good go for their fans at home but they are playing awful football. Maybe North will be a bit down on their missing the finals so their desire will not be strong enough. We could get an upset. Nope.
North Melbourne by 51

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