Friday, May 7, 2010

AFL Preview

AFL Preview Round 7

At the risk of being accused of plagiarism, I, like Dennis Cometti, have been reading the after match, pre match, middle of the match comments of John Worsfold and I am happy to report that it seems I am not the only perplexed reader. I f I was a West Coast Eagles supporter I would be totally confused about just where the Eagles are going this year considering they are sitting bottom four with just one win from six games because if I had really believed what Whoosha was saying I would be thinking that we should be sitting where the Fremantle Dockers are at the moment. Yes I do believe it is a great thing to be continually building up the team’s losses, building belief that they are improving but the results in reality are nowhere near that expected belief. At exactly what stage of the season will West Coast be playing the football that Worsfold describes post match? They play Hawthorn this week at Subiaco and both these teams are in the same boat. That is they cannot play as well as we would all be made to believe. It’s not the fact that both these teams are sitting 1 – 5 it’s the level of football they are playing to have achieved that result. Poor, very poor, only a smidgen better than Adelaide and Richmond. Maybe I will eat my words at season end but there will have to be a dramatic improvement from these two teams to make me want to reach for the steak knife.

Only 4 points in the tipping last week, one better than was predicted by one of my readers, but it is getting a little difficult to confidently tip based on form. The horse has not quite bolted with 16 rounds to go and plenty of time to catch up but the animal is starting to get a bit skittish. I was going to say I bet I get more right than wrong from now but with the AFL cracking down on betting on the footy I won’t. Some tough games to pick this week but hey, that’s the game.

Melbourne V Western Bulldogs MCG Friday

Perhaps we all got a bit carried away with Melbourne winning 3 in a row but tipsters need to be a little more logical in this game. Selection should be the Western Bulldogs without a doubt. Brad Johnson is out injured but he has not been there for most of the games this season so it won’t make that much of a difference. Jurrah – who has been out for a while - and Petterd are the major losses for the Dees but in truth Melbourne is not in the same class as The Bulldogs. Rocket’s mob will win this on the bit.

Western Bulldogs by 43

Essendon V Port Adelaide Etihad Saturday

You will need to flip a coin, not so much to pick a winner, but to decide on the form the Bombers are going to bring into the game. If Essendon play like they did against Carlton they will surely win. If they play like they did against Fremantle they will surely lose. Port has been a lot more consistent although the game is away. Prismall is back in for the Bombers and Motlop returns for the Power. As much as I would like to see the Bombers win their inconsistent form is a major concern. They could win but I will stick with form......unfortunately.

Port Adelaide by 11

West Coast Eagles V Hawthorn Subiaco Saturday

Both teams are playing so badly that the fairest result is a draw. Some injuries to both teams won’t help their cause and they will be equally desperate to get a win on the board. When in doubt pick the home team even when you are unconvinced. West Coast’s Embley has been suspended? I missed that, he must have said “Darn it” to the umpire. Because the Hawks have announced that they will go the muscle the opening quarter will probably be a bloodbath. Good old fashioned footy. Whoosha remains on a positive bent, misplaced but necessary and Clarkson is demanding answers. Who cares?

West Coast by 7

Collingwood V North Melbourne MCG Saturday

North is rolling along quite nicely with 3 wins from their last 4 games but Collingwood is showing some pretty awesome form. The Pies will find this tough but they should prevail comfortably in the end. Wellingham and Fraser out for the Pies are big losses but O’Bree and perhaps Wood are adequate replacements. North is looking okay but this is a whole different ball game to the opposition they have played in the last 4 weeks.

Collingwood by 39

Brisbane V Fremantle Gabba Saturday

The Lions have lost the last two games and will be wanting to get their season back on track. This is one helluva road trip for the Dockers and while they are playing irresistible footy they might find this a bit tougher. While Fremantle have won 5 games they have beaten only one team in the 8 and that is Geelong – mind you a pretty good win at that. Pavlich and Hill will be hard for the Lions to stop and their new boy Barlow is the find of the season. Tarrant needs to hold Fevola and somebody needs to hold Brown. But with the Black, Power, Brennan, Rich and Banfield and the game at the Gabba the Lions may be just good enough to hold Freo out.

Brisbane by 22

Geelong V Sydney Skilled Sunday

This should be a cracker of a game as both teams are playing winning football. The Swans have been a bit of a surprise packet in the opening 6 rounds losing just the one game and Geelong’s training run against Richmond last week will have them champing at the bit to lower Sydney’s colours. There is a definite home ground advantage with just a handful of South Melbourne supporters from years ago able to make the trip. The Cats have lost Otten for a few weeks which is a big blow but they have Ablett back in the side. That kind of makes up for the out. Geelong has won their past 19 games in a row at Skilled and that stat might just be enough for tipsters to pick the Cats. I’m comfortable with it.

Geelong by 29

Adelaide V Richmond AAMI Sunday

Neither team has won a game but my vote is for the Tigers to “win” the wooden spoon. This game will see them anchored to the bottom of the ladder because even the Crows are not playing that poorly. Adelaide supporters will turn up to see a rare Crow’s win this year. No changes to the Adelaide side, probably because there isn’t anybody else available. The players at Adelaide approached the coach and stated they no longer wanted training on the day before the game. Just something a bit different, albeit unusual. Richmond plays like they have been hit by a tram pre-season so the inclusion of Polak makes sense!!

Adelaide by 33

St Kilda V Carlton Etihad Monday

The AFL experiment to play Monday night football starts here and it’s not a public holiday. Carlton did okay against the Pies but in the end it was a 9 goal defeat. The Saints had a confidence booster against the Doggies in a last gasp win and they would not want to let this game get away from them. The Blues are good enough to cause an upset here but the Saints should hold them out. Let’s assume the Saints can kick more than 100 points this week which they will have to do to beat the Blues.

St Kilda by 14

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