Friday, April 30, 2010

AFL Preview Round 6

AFL Preview Round 6

After another round of scoring 4 my heart’s just not in it this week tipsters. Yes, I know you all scored 4’s, or, at best a 5, but it’s debilitating. As punishment I decided to give the dog a haircut and a shampoo. So drenched through and with badly mauled hands I am in the right frame of mind to put some serious deliberation into this week’s games.
It’s a shame that there wasn’t a team that got beaten by 100 points last round because that would be a sure indicator that they are going to win this week. In fact I firmly believe this is a deliberate tactic by some AFL coaches to motivate their teams. Brad Scott used it when North was smashed by the Saints one week by 105 points then came out and won the following match against the Eagles. Port Adelaide used the same tactic with coaches Williams and Laidley working in cahoots and perhaps after a late night call to the North coach. They suffered a 95 point humiliation at the hands of Geelong one week then slogged it out with the Saints the following game to record a very meritorious victory indeed. Teams that lost by 50 points or less in round 5 should not be considered for a form reversal so, Brisbane, Richmond, Adelaide and West Coast will require some thought put into their selection while Essendon is a sure thing to reverse an 11 goal hiding from Collingwood last week to win against a poorly performing Hawthorn. I know this sounds crazy but that seems to be the prevalent form guide early into this season. Apply insanity to your selections to gain some sanity by Sunday night.

My son runs a ladder prediction competition amongst a few of us and there are a few anomalies in most of the ladders. Fremantle in the top 4 after 5 rounds looks very out of place. Hawthorn in the bottom 4 also looks suspicious but tipsters there are 17 rounds to go. Enjoy and good luck.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda at Etihad Friday Night

A match between two of the teams touted as being possible grand finalists should be a good one.

The Saints are coming off a shocker last week against Port Adelaide, a game they surprisingly lost, while the Bulldogs were far too good for the Crows. The only real testing games the Western Bulldogs have had were against Brisbane and Collingwood and they lost those games convincingly. It is with great relief that they meet the Saints who will be without Reiwoldt, one of those players that is good enough to make you change a tip. Goddard bobbed up a couple of weeks ago to kick 5 and Schneider did the same last week when he kicked 3. Who will the Saints depend on this week? Koschitzke? The Bullies seem to have solved a forward problem with Barry Hall and their midfield is playing well. It should be, hopefully, a close game and it’s hard to pick a winner.

St Kilda by 6

North Melbourne V Melbourne at Etihad Saturday

Two young sides with not a lot to lose going hell for leather should provide an intriguing spectacle for the supporters. Melbourne has not done a lot wrong since their opening round loss to Hawthorn but since then the Hawks have not won a game while Melbourne has won their last 3. Hard to believe. North suffered a big loss against the Saints a few weeks ago but they have gone on to win 2 of their last 3. Like Friday night’s game we might have another close one simply for the reason that neither team is good enough to completely crush the other. Are we looking at the first draw of the season? North Melbourne love draws. Melbourne will break some long standing record, not a good memory one, if they can win 4 in a row and if they can beat North.

Melbourne by 11

Adelaide V Port Adelaide at AAMI Saturday

The Crows do have some serious problems with injuries and simply are not playing well. Port on the other hand showed their versatility with a fighting win over premiership favourites St Kilda and that was after a 95 point drubbing at the hands of Geelong the week before. Go figure. The win against the Saints by the Power was a slogging affair and the only reason you could offer for them to lose this game is that they will be too tired to see the game out. Let’s face it, Adelaide hasn’t really run themselves off their feet in the first 5 weeks so they should last the distance. It’s the SA derby and it’s Port’s turn....I think.

Port Adelaide by 23

Essendon V Hawthorn at the MCG Saturday

Both teams are experiencing very poor seasons and how the Bombers beat the Blues a couple of weeks ago remains the 13th current wonder of the world. Their loss on Anzac Day against Collingwood was a couple of goals short of embarrassing and Hawthorn didn’t impress all that much either by losing their opening game in Tasmania to a struggling North Melbourne. As mentioned in the introduction teams that are losing by large margins one week seem to reverse their forms the next and win. However, you would expect Essendon to struggle against a team that has a lot more experience and a functioning forward line if Roughead doesn’t have to play in the ruck. Assuming the Hawks want to salvage something from this season they had better start here.

Hawthorn by 29

Sydney V Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday

Brisbane lost their first game of the season against Melbourne. Who would have thought that? The margin was 50 points. Sydney is winning its games by about the same margin. The game is being played at Swans’ home ground. Can Brisbane come back from such a defeat, travel two weeks in a row and get back on the winning cycle? Can the Sydney backs shut down both Fevola and Brown? That really will be the key. The Swans have lost Bolton for a while with an Achilles injury. Another difficult decision with as many reasons for and against for both teams that may only help to confuse the issue. Can we tip another draw or get off the fence and pick a team?

Brisbane by 7

Geelong V Richmond at Skilled Sunday

The odds for this game? Geelong to pay $1.04 for a win. Richmond is at $22.00. I think they know something and far be it for me to disagree.

Geelong by 95

Carlton V Collingwood at MCG Sunday

The Pies and the Bombers attracted 90,000 to the Anzac day game last week. This game between Collingwood and Carlton will also get a crowd through the gate, perhaps around the 75,000 mark. The Pies have not let a loss to the Saints slow them down and have in the past two weeks accounted for Hawthorn and Essendon by around 10 goals. The Blues seem to have found a couple of other avenues to goal since Fevola left but that little fleet footed trio of Yarran, Betts and Garlett will be up against a reasonably stingy Collingwood backline. Chris Judd has been just about best on ground in the two games since his return from suspension and he, along with Murphy, Gibbs and Scotland will be a headache for the Pies no doubt. Conversely Collingwood have Swan, Pendlebury and new young players that have stepped up this season in Beames, Wellingham and Sidebottom to give the Blues a similar headache but the Pies also have a better functioning forward line. Should be a great game and I don’t expect either team to allow a big winning margin. I suggest the Pies will keep up the intensity.

Collingwood by 21

West Coast Eagles v Fremantle at Subiaco Sunday

The first WA derby of the season and strangely enough there would not have been many experts at the start of the year that would have predicted the odds that are showing in this game. Fremantle go into the match as favourites and why not? They have swept all but St Kilda before them so far and if we base this game on form the Dockers should win this, if not easily, but these western derbies can be full of surprises. West Coast sprung one of their own surprises although probably done under pressure when they selected Lynch who had been inexplicably cooling his heels in the WAFL for the past 4 weeks. It’s hard to see the Dockers losing this game based on form but West Coast supporters will be there in their thousands to urge the lads on and a West Coast resurgence in the Derby is a distinct possibility. Do we have a form pick or a gut feeling pick?

West Coast by 14

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