Friday, April 9, 2010

AFL Preview Round 3

AFL Preview Round 3

Last week 4 /8 Total 11 from 16
No doubt everybody is blaming the previewer for a tipping debacle last week but let me set the record straight. Bad tipping last week was 2 correct, mediocre tipping was 3, average tipping was 4, lucky tipping was 5 and extraordinary know nothing about AFL was a 6. Anything over the 6 and you were on drugs! Going by some of the results last week I suspect some players might have also been on a bit of something. Look at it this way it’s nice to get the bad week out of the way early in the season! The major problem that faces the tipster now is judging the form of teams going into round 3. Are the teams that are winning by heaps but playing much weaker teams in good form? Are teams we thought that might be languishing at the bottom of the ladder and are now sitting in the top 4 really playing that well? Or is it just too early in the season to be making those calls and consistency will only appear after round 10? Are we processing too many pieces of information before we make a decision? Are we eating enough vegies through the week to enable brain synapses and emotional endorphins to act independently of each other so we have clear logic to follow? A lot of questions but not a lot of answers folks.
Talk continues unabated in football via journalists and commentators regarding the use or overuse of the interchange bench and the amount of interchanges a team should have. Stats have proven that the team with the most injuries tends to win the game because it allows other players to stay on the field longer which helps them attune more mentally to the flow of the game. How the game is played today is a far cry from how it was played 25 years ago and if memory serves me correctly we only used the 19th and 20th player if somebody was injured to the degree that they could not continue. We sucked on an orange at quarter time and three quarter time, even snuck a puff of a cigarette if one of your spectator mates was out on the ground for the coach’s address, trained 2 nights a week, drank more alcohol after a game than Cuz, Betts and Houlihan could manage in a week’s binge, never warmed up, didn’t even recognise the expression warm down and your pregame stretch was reaching for a fag tucked into the bottom of your footy bag amongst the socks you forgot to take out to wash after last week’s game! Ice vests and ice baths and masseurs and pedicurists and manicurists and hair stylists the players have today seems a bit over the top but then again when you get paid about $300K a season compared to the $15 a game we got for a loss and the $40 a game you got for the win back in the old days I guess there had to be changes. Rotations off the bench have become a tactic as well with a well timed interchange receiving a pass and racing unimpeded into the 50 metre forward area before the opposition have had the time to work out who was supposed to be manning him up. I do agree with one comment and that is if your really best players stay on the ground long enough without being rested you’re bound to win the game!
Some curly games this week tipsters – stay focused and good luck.

Collingwood V St Kilda at Etihad Friday

The Saints had a lucky win against North last week just falling over the line in the last quarter by 104 points. Collingwood had a slightly closer game toying with the opposition possibly to help lift their spirits winning comfortably by a point in the last 10 seconds. It was all to do with judgement really. Fans supporting both sides left the game early as the result was pretty much sewn up by half time! Both these teams have won their opening rounds and Luke Ball has been given permission by his team mates at Collingwood to play half the game in his new black and white jumper and the other half back in his old Saints Guernsey, especially if he continues to play as poorly as he did last week!! The Pies will be allowed an additional interchange when Luke plays for his old team. All of this shouldn’t make a great difference because the coaches got together last Tuesday night after training and tossed a coin to determine who would win the game and will address the players before the game to let them know the result of that toss. The publican at the hotel the coaches went to last Tuesday, the Studley Park Tavern, is an old mate of mine and he witnessed the coin toss by Lyons and Malthouse after they had downed their 8th beer, heard the result and rang me to let me know which team they had agreed to let win on the condition that I would give his pub a bit of a mention, which I have. As a personal service to you, the tipster, here it is.

Saints by 24

North Melbourne V West Coast At Etihad Saturday

It’s doubtful that there was any pregame agreement reached for this one because neither team has won a game yet. Based on performances so far West Coast seem to be closer to winning than North. Unfortunately for the Eagles the game is being played in Melbourne but based on the unpredictability of football early in the season it’s quite possible that West Coast may notch their first win of the season in an away game. North will be pretty fired up after such a pathetic display last week so West Coast better not think this will be a walk in the park. And for crying out loud Eagles, bring back Lynch who apparently has been a naughty boy and is not the messiah??!! Coaches who watched too much Monty Python had better be careful else they’ll develop a sense of humour not immediately evident to 90% of the population.

West Coast by 15

Port Adelaide V Brisbane Lions At AAMI Saturday

It seems the Brown / Fevola combination has become so big that they are getting their own post code! The code does start with a 4 so it remains Brisbane based. We all know that the Power has made an auspicious start to the season and won both its opening games as has Brisbane. Those wins will guarantee an additional 26 Port Adelaide supporters at AAMI for the game but will that be enough to cheer them on to beat the Lions? I think not.

Brisbane by 22

Sydney V Richmond at SCG Saturday

Did anybody else see Lin Yu Chun from Taiwan on the show Taiwan You’ve Got Talent singing the Whitney Houston song “I will Always Love You”? If you thought Susan Boyle had a great voice you want to listen to this kid sing the song and remember, his normal language is Taiwanese and he sings it in english? Oh and by the way if you’re interested, Sydney will beat the Tigers in this game.

Sydney by 39

Carlton V Essendon at the MCG Saturday

Let’s call this a mini blockbuster because there will probably be 70,000 spectators to watch the game based simply on the popularity of the teams playing. The Bombers crashed last week in a surprising last quarter capitulation to the Dockers at Etihad and you would have to wonder just how they will change their game plan enough to beat Carlton. They won’t.

Carlton by 28

Melbourne V Adelaide MCG Sunday

Had this game been the first of the season I would be confidently spruiking the Crows to a big win. The first two weeks have seen some contrasting performances by Melbourne but pretty much the same effort from Adelaide who have lost both their games so far to teams that did not even make the finals last year and the losses have been by convincing margins. This could be a tight game all day. Maybe as many lead changes as there were in the Melbourne Collingwood clash last week but on paper you would have to give the Crows the nod. Perhaps Melbourne supporters can have a bit each way on this one.

Adelaide by 15

Western Bulldogs V Hawthorn at Etihad Sunday

Here’s a tough one for the tipsters. The Bulldogs whipped the Tigers last week which, while good for the percentage, is not a real good indicator of just how they are travelling. Hawthorn had a really tough encounter with the Cats last week and the two suspensions they received might tell us just how hard the game was played. Will that be a deciding factor in picking the winner of this game? Use whatever sign you can find to help you make that choice. I think the Western Bulldogs need to lift a bit as well and it might still be another week before we see Brad Johnson who has been crook for a week – maybe nerves coming up to his 350th. Maybe just a common virus. Roughead and Franklin up forward for the Hawks, Barry Hall up forward for the Doggies. Should be a good game so we can assume that there will be no live telecast into the west.

Western Bulldogs by 11

Fremantle V Geelong at Subiaco on Sunday

Let me rattle off the stats of past history that the Dockers will need to overcome to have even an inkling of a chance to win this game. Freo have not beaten Geelong since the Ford Motor company was established in Michigan in 1903 or thereabouts. The Dockers have lost 2311 games straight against Geelong. Mark Thompson’s grandfather’s uncle originally moved to Corio Bay in 1876. Geelong has less letters in its name than Fremantle. So there you have it. An impressive list of reasons not to tip the Dorks who are playing exciting, uninhibited football. But look at the odds in stats they overcame last week against Essendon in Melbourne?! On the positive side Fremantle has Aaron Sandilands playing for them and opposition ruckmen can only get near him for reach if they abseil down his forearms. A few losses to the Cats with suspension, I won’t mention Mooney because he is usually suspended anyway, and injuries. It could be closer than you think and add to that the trip over to the west by Geelong and selecting Fremantle isn’t such a silly idea is it? is.

Geelong by 17
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